Turning Crafting into a Calculated Risk

I've just discovered that Entropia Tracker allows you to check ubers on all the various items and mobs. You can set the threshold to 1,000 ped to 10,000 ped if you want. When you run the report, it tells you the recent ubers over that amount you've chosen for that item, how many days and hours since the last one went, how many peds of globals/hofs turned over since then on that item, and how long it has currently been since the last uber.

There is no way to say for certain that ANYTHING is overdue.. However, it would be foolish to say on any given item that an Uber will NEVER hit... Therefore, the next most logical conclusion is to say, the longer the amount of time and the more peds cycled on an item without an Uber, the closer it is getting to the time an Uber will hit!

I guess what I am saying is, if more peds have been cycled and more time elapsed than is normal for an uber on that item for that amount, then, in all likelihood, it is overdue. But many factors play into who is going to get it when it hits. What is your blueprint QR... What are your skills. How many people are crafting it right now. And part of it is simply being on the right crafting machine at the right time.

Now, it is a documented fact, that I know someone who ATH'd on a crafting machine that virtually a whole soc was using to craft on because it was a good machine. Since it paid out that ATH, very few people that I know of who use that machine have had a good crafting run on it since. This doesn't prove anything, to be sure... But... Every server has a hot and cold cycle. Not all places in EU are hot at the same time, not all are cold either. I had dropped like 30 NRF's on TI, then moved to Shinook and first drop gave me a 50 ped alferix. Well, the conclusion is simple. TI's loot was on a take cycle, and Shinook was paying out, and the server seen an imbalance and crapped out my global.

I really do believe you have to be in the right place at the right time doing the right things at the right time to stand a chance of getting an uber. This gives it the appearance of being accidental when it does finally happen, because it is only by chance that you will be doing all the right things at the one magical moment.

So... I just wanted to share the excitement over a new possibly useful tool I found, and perhaps a new way at figuring out what to craft, since that is a common question I am faced with.

And yes... EVEN BASIC FILTERS HAVE HAD FOUR DIGIT HOFS. Just as surely as I have witnessed non-mutant chirpies having four digits too.

January 2012: Review of the Planets

Well.. I got to thinking about the various planets and how a person might decide just one to start on. Without having already played, who's to know which planet is best for you? So, I thought I would write a general post covering each of the planets and what they have to offer. I am trying to be as objective and unbiased as possible. I have no vested interest in Calypso, Rocktropia, or Arkadia. I am not their investor, or otherwise affiliated with them. I don't even own Calypso Land Deeds. I am however a qualified and experienced Speech and Interview judge, so I am used to judging what I see in a fair manner.

Calypso:
Features: The flagship planet of the Entropia Universe. Has the strongest most developed economy, the largest population. In general, most of the professions do well here. However, I have decided to rank the planets according to what they seem geared best for.
Crafting: 10/10 (Widest access to materials, and markets for your crafted goods.)
Hunting: 9/10 (Largest variety of mobs, from noob to uber, but item drop rates suck)
Mining: 8/10 (Could be better, could be worse, but is perhaps the most balanced, and has best market for selling your ores and enmatters.)
Quests: 2/10 (Unless you do the 10K Bronze, the quest rewards suck)
Noob Friendly: 5/10 (It is hard to start as a noob here, you can't own the oil rig, sweat prices are depressed, the quests don't give you anything but nova and blazar fragments unless you spend a lot doing them. In short, deposit, or die of boredom.)

ROCKtropia:
Features: Rock and Roll themed planet. Large variety of easy mobs for beginners. Large variety of uber mobs for ubers. Ores and Enmatters that are specific only to this planet. Large array of rewarding and fairly easy quests. Is home to HELL and Artic.
Crafting: 5/10 (Many materials hard to come by for doing larger runs. Poor market for reselling your crafted goods unless you own a shop or stand in lagoon advertising all day, seems a lot of people here don't know how to use the Auction house.)
Hunting: 9/10 (Noob mobs are SUPER easy, some of the tough mobs are super easy too, but some of the tough mobs are uber tough. Why I give it 9/10 is hunting loot markups, large variety of super easy to super tough mobs, and in general, I get literally 5 to 10 times the items I've ever looted on Calypso.)
Mining: 8/10 (I only give it 8 because of lack of sustainable demand for mined resources. It can be quite a challenge selling your ores fast. I wanted to give it a 10 because deposits are shallow and easily hit with shallow finders, and THERE IS NO COST TO GO TO HELL unlike trying to get to F.O.M.A.)
Quests: 10/10 (Some of the mission chains are still in their infancy, however, of the ones in existence, there is actually TT value on the rewards! You don't get novas and blazars... You get high markup goodies! The Thing gives you 50 pec TT helicopter and 50 pec TT truck, and couple peds in weapons faps and ammo! RT quests give you gold coin worth 5K% to 25K% MU (5 peds to 25 peds per K), Rocktropia Records (10 to the pec) And items that help you gain other quests, like police badge and radio which together are worth like 20 peds mu. When I first arrived, it took me a week to do all the beginner quests to familiarize myself with the place before I even really did any ped spending!)
Noob Friendly: 10/10 (The people here are VERY friendly and helpful. The quests are SUPER easy for non depositing noobs especially the Artic The Thing quest, and a lot of the beginning mobs drop good loot for being one shot opalo mobs. Sweating might be tougher, but sweat is about a ped or two per K higher than on Caly)

Arkadia:
Features: Well... In my opinion, they are a LONG ways from reaching my satisfaction. They have FAILED thus far to bring out Treasure Hunting. They had claimed I believe last August to have it implemented, but NOPE. And this is what everyone was waiting for!
Crafting: 7/10 (I only put it at 7 because many of the prints require a huge number of different ingredients making it a nightmare to try and click them, However the Auction seems to be a slight bit stronger here for selling crafted items than on Rocktropia.)
Hunting: 5/10 (Well... I figure 5 was low enough, it is a failing grade. You have to be pretty uber to hunt even the low level mobs any more... And the loot is astonishingly crappy. It's not just my own experience, but failing treasure hunting, I know several people who refuse to go back to Arkadia until everything is as promised. I have no idea what they expect you to hunt here as a total noob. The Tiarak are about the only mob I can kill.)
Mining: 6/10 (It started out great mining here to be quite honest. But hit rates are way down now, if I wanted 1 in 10 bombs to hit, I'd go to Hell where sure, 1 in 10 is a very good ratio when you are talking X's and higher! Also, there isn't the best market for trying to sell your ores either, and I havn't seen enough traders when I've needed them.)
Quests: ?/10 (I don't think I have even found a mission broker here but I haven't looked for them either, so I can't really comment on this part of it.)
Noob Friendly: 5/10 (I just don't see the great opportunities that Rocktropia, or even Calypso have to offer. Lacking totally noob mobs for the noobs, I have no choice but to give it a low rating. I may be wrong, I am not an Ark expert, but this is what I see.)

Next Island:
I have only been to Next Island once, and never returned. It is definitely more noob friendly than Arkadia and maybe even Calypso, but there's nothing really spectacular here as far as I am concerned. I really am not in a position to make any comments regarding the game play here since for me it's nearly a year since I was there. I like to think it's came a long ways since they began. I am told though that Ancient Greece is good for cheap Melee skills! At the time I was there, loots were on par with Calypso for Mining, Hunting, wasn't maybe as good, but I am sure that's all changed.

As things improve or get worse over time, I will come back from time to time and update this listing for your benefit. This is mainly intended as a quick guide for you to look at your needs and wants, and possibly help you decide where you want to concentrate your energies. I mean, it's obvious. If all you want to do is craft, start on Calypso. This is just made as a tool that offers a second opinion where one is desired.  If the management of these properties that I have reviewed do not like my scores, then they should read and take heed... If Ark will ever introduce Treasure Hunting, I will probably give them 10/10! I mean seriously folks! Treasure hunting! A new concept, yet they are dragging their feet... It just doesn't make sense to me. They have a veritable gold mine within their grasp, but slowly the golden goose is dying and wasting away. Soon, Ark might be a ghost town. Rocktropia has a lot of work left to be done, but at least they are putting quality into it. Calypso, is booming and needs room to expand,  but this is why we need to get the other planets economies roaring to life, so that people have viable alternatives to go to. 

I wish you all luck, and if you are choosing which planet to begin on, give it some careful thought :-) And you don't have to just take my advice for it.
 

AUCTION HOUSE: Clarification on Placing and Filling Orders

The weak economies of Arkadia and Rocktropia are in dire need of supply and demand. Yes, the supply is there, but it does not do any good for the crafters if the materials and ores are all trade terminaled. But, it is a huge risk to post large amounts of listings and ores, and have to wait for them to sell when you want to keep playing but have no peds. So my goal here, is to encourage you crafters to place orders for the materials you need... It tells the people selling their materials that ok, I have a market for it. In order for crafting to be viable, we must convince people not to TT any of the materials we need, or we really can't craft. Those of you who do thousands of click runs on calypso... You have the benefit of a steady flow of ores from the huge economy, and from the asteroid, and all other destinations. Calypso is the lifeblood of EU. But I want to see all the other planets become viable as well.


So... In order to place an order... You must click the orders tab. Then, you must click on the "available" tab. In order to find the item you wish to order (no L items may be ordered), you must go through the list one page or 10 pages at a time, and select your item. Then, you may place an order for it, it costs 1 ped per day of the listing regardless of quantity or peds ordered of that item. You set the maximum markup you will pay, and the WHOLE amount for that order will be deducted from your ped card.


If you order 100 narcanisum at 125%... And someone sells 90 ingots at 120%, the 5% difference is refunded to your ped card at the time you purchase those ingots. You have the option of leaving the remaining amount of the order up, or you may take it down early to obtain the rest of the funds that are still reserved for it.

Please bear in mind, it is not economically feasible for people to fill orders below 105%, the exceptions are for residues in large quantities. However, refined oil, the refiner decay alone brings the cost of this to 105%, so a note here: NEVER fill orders for oil for less than 105% unless you like throwing away peds! I've learned this from doing!


And a reminder...


TO FILL orders...


Click the orders tab. You may search if there is a lot of listings, or browse... Or sort by markup... When you find an order you wish to fill... Your listing MUST have the same quantity or less, and be AT that markup or under in order for the order to fill (buy out price). If you do NOT meet these requirements, the order will not fill.


Orders can change from hour to hour, minute to minute, day to day. What isn't ordered now, may command a huge price tomorrow because someone wants to do an emergency crafting run on something.

Recent Land Deed ROI and Observations

Land deeds I am told have hit 6 peds this last week in dividends. However, I wanted to report that during Merry Mayhem the dividends plummeted I am told to as little as 50 pecs, at which point some people got upset and sold out... Logic might suggest Merry Mayhem would be more profitable than normal times, however... Being limited to what, 30 hours of gameplay or something like that... All I know is I would have maxed it out in less than two days, is why I never do Merry Mayhem...

See.. Only the people who have a lot of peds will take part in Merry Mayhem. And by limiting the hours participants can play, that limits how many peds will be spent, and taken in by MindArk. Most of the players not bound by the time limitations are people busy sweating or otherwise low budget players. The breadwinners are forced to ration their play time by the contest rules, so it does not surprise me that the dividends sank to an incredible low.

Of course, after Merry Mayhem, we seen the ROI's return to normal 5 ped range. And, now, we see some growth. It is quite possible as Entropia becomes more popular, that we will see 10 ped dividends before the year is out.

However... EVEN at 50 pecs per share... That's 5 cents on $100 per week... You still are beating the savings account interest paid by banks. Not to mention when you consider what the ROI on a normal payout is, 50 cents or 60 cents a week. Savings accounts MAYBE pay half a percent per year. Think about it. If I had $100,000 in a savings account, I sure as hell wouldn't let the banks use it and pay me pitiful interest rates. I'd make the first priority to own

Sweating and Synchronization Mindforce Chips

It just occurred to me I should post about the subject of sweating and the use of Synchronization chips. The estimated cost to continuously give yourself the concentration boost, is around half a ped per hour. Assuming 3 peds per K of sweat, that is about 175 to 200 extra sweat per hour you must collect JUST to break even and see any benefit.

So, before I go any further, let's talk about what the Synchronization chip does. When you are hit with the effect from this mindforce chip, for 5 minutes you gain increased concentration and focus, so that when mobs hit you, your concentration isn't broken and your sweating is successful. As opposed to getting interrupted every time you are hit. But it consumes mindforce to do this.

Traditionally, most people sweat a very large mob in large groups, say at Neas. This negates the need for any concentration buffs, since only one person in the group is under attack at any given moment, and everyone else is able to sweat uninterrupted. But for the lone sweater, every time you are hit, you lose concentration, and your sweat attempt is wasted.

So... If you sweat in large groups, the synchronization chip is a waste. But... If you sweat by yourself, I can see the benefits of having it. Every click that starts pulling sweat, succeeds regardless of being hit or not. But if you are being hit, it takes much longer for the sweat cycle to finish. It is quite possible that you might not even get enough extra sweat from the successes to pay for the mindforce for this chip.

But I can tell you straight up... If you take advantage of group sweating, you are only throwing away your peds if you use the synchronization chips.

New Planets, New Frontiers, New Opportunities

It was recounted to me a couple years ago how many of what we would now call "Ubers", the ones running around with 5 and 6 digits of markup on their weapons armor and other tools... Made their pile of Peds simply by having started early on, in the beginning of Entropia. It is unknown how many people are included in this group, but I often wonder when I see screenshots of hofs with astronomical ped balances... How'd they do it? Simple... A lot of what USED to be just every day cheap items, became scarce but highly desireable when the Entropia Universe took off and became more and more populated. There was a... Boom in markups and demand for things, especially weapons. I am told some players capitalized on this drastic rise in prices that occured many years ago already.

It was probably 2009 when I was told of this.  The source of the information came from a player who himself had done this, taken advantage of common things becoming uncommon and valuable. It is quite possible that same person may actually read this and maybe not remember having talked to me about it... But I want to open everyones eyes to the future. NOW is the furthest back in time we will ever be. How's that for something to ponder?

Right now we are seeing infant worlds, much how Calypso started out to be sure... Except there is a huge difference. Calypso did not have other planets already successful from which to spinoff and use as a foundation. Rocktropia, Arkadia, Next Island... All are able to lean on Calypso, a well established economy and solid player base. There is no way that any planet will fail so long as this strong foundation remains. However, there is still great opportunity.

Over the years, many tools, weapons, have been changed, or eliminated. Some things quit dropping. And some of those items are worth a great fortune in peds to the lucky few who own them.We do not know what Rocktropia weapons or tools will become rare or valuable... Certainly, it will do so to a lesser extent than was seen in the earlier days of Entropia... But nothing is 100% right at the beginning. Take a look at your favorite television series. Compare say, seasons one and two, to seasons five or seven... Don't you notice something? The components making up that show begin to grow together and flow more smoothly, while at the beginning, no one knew for sure what direction things would take. If you compare the early days of Entropia to now... You can definitely see the point I am making here. Things have came together smoothly for Calypso. But now, we embark on the other planets journeys. It will take a few years, but they will get them ironed out.

Right now, yes, there is a lot of loot out there that has no use at present. Hopefully this will be fixed. But learn the lesson that has already been observed... Android Gears were dropping by the piles, but there was no use for them so they were TTd. Now their drop rate is so low that they command a 6200% markup on orders. The same thing can happen with other components that are dropping.

But what I am really writing about now is this: Look to the future. Based on what you know... What items do you feel are going to be valuable and needed perhaps by yourself or someone else? What weapons are cheap now but have the potential of going up a lot? I know L weapons make it a moot point... Being L, they are no longer items so much as they are commodities. A half condition Isis CB5 (L) at 250% is no different from a full condition Isis CB5 (L) at 200%. It's a commodity. It comes down to X gun is only worth about Y markup. Unlimited items and tools and weapons is where there is a lot of room for profits. For instance... No one in their right mind would hunt with a L weapon that costs 10K% MU. But... A UL weapon that is +5K peds... + 100K peds... If it is worth it to the person that has the money, and they want it bad enough, they can keep it as long as it suits them.

The message I am trying to put out to all of you is this:

You will probably not see ridiculous price increases especially in light of the bad economy and also with more planets, there being more competition between "brands", and what may be expensive from one planet's product line, the equivalent may be much cheaper from another planet, and people will always compare.  But there will still be a few items of which only a few will ever exist, and these, if you can get them early enough, and hang on to them, there is profit to be had.

But when looking at items, always bear in mind that all as it is now, shall not forever remain. Those items you refused to hold onto might be a small gold mine some day like those Android Gears... Or... Maybe that 800% ore will turn to TT food as has happened before too. But at TT prices, one can only go up!

Also... I speak this last paragraph from my own experience... If you are doing so badly that you find yourself TTing things you wouldnt have dreamt of TTing... It's too late and your luck is too bad for that few peds to save you. Rather, you should find other sources of peds, that those items will be of more value to you later than now.

ROCKTROPIA: Things You Should Never TT

It is a challenge to be a crafter on Rocktropia. There is inadequate supply of materials unless at great expense because few people are using the auction house, and shopkeepers are not keeping enough supply of common necessities or their prices are so ridiculous you cannot do business with them. Further, a lot of you are TTing high markup loot because you can't find buyers...

Here's a list of things that you SHOULD NOT TT but rather list on AH or fill orders with because no only do you need the peds, but crafters need the items!

Silver Party Flasks - Average MU around 150 to 250%.
Silver Shakers - Average Orders 150 to 200%
Vixen Android Gears - Very low supply very high demand, Average MU 6K% on orders.
ROCKtropia Gold Coins - Valued at 10 pecs for 100, MU is around 5K to 10K% (10 peds per K)
Rocktropia Records - 10 pecs per hundred as well, MU has been 500%, and is needed for Creative Juice.
ORES... You should never TT any ores in high demand, such as Gazzurdite and Alternative. Traders are somewhat common and anywhere there is a large group of people at least ask if they need any of your ores, someone I am sure will buy. I know it is going to take time to develop the economy on Rocktropia, but it will thrive soon enough.

IF YOU HAVE TRANSPORTATION TO CALY THAT IS SAFE:

You should stockpile Basic Target Assessment Units, they drop by the bushel on Rocktropia, and command a great markup on Calypso, usually a lot of orders for them on AH too.

Mindforce chips are also perhaps something worth taking back to caly. I never get them to drop for me on Caly, but here on RT, I get several a day without fail no matter how small a hunting run I do.

Regardless of what you have, you should always check orders on auction house especially if it something you are wanting to TT. The only way things will boom is if people can get the materials they need and put few extra peds into your pocket as well.