Turning Crafting into a Calculated Risk

I've just discovered that Entropia Tracker allows you to check ubers on all the various items and mobs. You can set the threshold to 1,000 ped to 10,000 ped if you want. When you run the report, it tells you the recent ubers over that amount you've chosen for that item, how many days and hours since the last one went, how many peds of globals/hofs turned over since then on that item, and how long it has currently been since the last uber.

There is no way to say for certain that ANYTHING is overdue.. However, it would be foolish to say on any given item that an Uber will NEVER hit... Therefore, the next most logical conclusion is to say, the longer the amount of time and the more peds cycled on an item without an Uber, the closer it is getting to the time an Uber will hit!

I guess what I am saying is, if more peds have been cycled and more time elapsed than is normal for an uber on that item for that amount, then, in all likelihood, it is overdue. But many factors play into who is going to get it when it hits. What is your blueprint QR... What are your skills. How many people are crafting it right now. And part of it is simply being on the right crafting machine at the right time.

Now, it is a documented fact, that I know someone who ATH'd on a crafting machine that virtually a whole soc was using to craft on because it was a good machine. Since it paid out that ATH, very few people that I know of who use that machine have had a good crafting run on it since. This doesn't prove anything, to be sure... But... Every server has a hot and cold cycle. Not all places in EU are hot at the same time, not all are cold either. I had dropped like 30 NRF's on TI, then moved to Shinook and first drop gave me a 50 ped alferix. Well, the conclusion is simple. TI's loot was on a take cycle, and Shinook was paying out, and the server seen an imbalance and crapped out my global.

I really do believe you have to be in the right place at the right time doing the right things at the right time to stand a chance of getting an uber. This gives it the appearance of being accidental when it does finally happen, because it is only by chance that you will be doing all the right things at the one magical moment.

So... I just wanted to share the excitement over a new possibly useful tool I found, and perhaps a new way at figuring out what to craft, since that is a common question I am faced with.

And yes... EVEN BASIC FILTERS HAVE HAD FOUR DIGIT HOFS. Just as surely as I have witnessed non-mutant chirpies having four digits too.

Simplified Crafting Advice: General guidelines that help with returns.

Crafting may seem complicated and more like a slot machine. In a sense it is, but in a sense no. See... You can eliminate some of the slot machine traits by crafting items with enough markup that even if you lose a few clicks you can still break even or profit with the markup.

However, there are a great many questions about what is best to set the slider to on the crafting machine. After much thorough thought, and some experimenting today with crafting, I have came to the following solution:

IF 100QR and you have the skills needed!

Short run: Best to either do full quantity and use residue if L items, Or set the slider to just where Green turns to Yellow.

Medium run: Recommend setting to the bottom of the green. It will give you a little bit better chance at big drops without giving you too many no drops.

Long run: If you want to go for a jackpot on a cheap item, Full Condition wont hurt you if you have a couple thousand clicks to do, in fact, you might be surprised!

IF 50 to 75 QR

Keep the slider in the green if you can. Once you are over 75 or 80 you can comfortably increase condition without worrying too much on longer runs.

If under 50...

Then I recommend keeping it in full quantity.

UNLESS!!! You are an uber crafter starting with a fresh blueprint in which case your skills will greatly help offset the cost in levelling up a new blueprint. If you are crafting level V components with no problem, I wouldn't worry about doing full condition on a 1QR print of a lower level, just go ahead and do it if you have the peds and want to do it.

Also...

If you aren't getting good results in one area, change to another outpost or tp. It's like mining: You can't hit what isn't there!