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Sunday, August 26, 2012

Economies of Scale and How It May Affect Your Results

I wanted to give all of you a new way of looking at your pedrolls...

In a casino, slot machines with higher denominations have a higher payout %. The reason is, even if you keep 10% of a penny it takes a lot of pennies for the casino to make anything. 10% of nothing is still nothing. However... When you have quarters or dollars, the casino can still make lots of money by taking a smaller percentage. The greater the amounts cycled the better returns they can afford to pay.

However, entropia is not a casino... BUT...

The official loss rate is claimed to be around 10 peds per hour of gameplay... Considering a 100 ped deposit might last me 10 hours if I am actively playing the whole time, sometimes a great deal longer or a great deal less, let's just suppose that this is the viable amount. And since no one is guaranteed a global or a hof, and near as I can tell they are randomly distributed and based on your ped turnover in some complicated algorithm... I mean, a person turning a small amount of peds tends to hit smaller hofs and globals than someone turning larger numbers of peds... I would say whatever and however MA decides what % is theirs, the returns are probably all figured out without taking into account hofs and globals.

The premise we are working with is, any time you complain about loot MA replies and says that returns are a %.... A % of what they won't tell you... A % of deposits? Then why do non depositors do pretty good? So it can't be that. A % of ped turnover would be more logical... But lets not hang up on this issue. Regardless we know MA is not in the business to run a loss and they have to make their money somehow, this necessitates it being a negative expectation game, but in how it takes and distributes is from our end, random redistribution of wealth, which I believe strongly is highly based on skill sets and play style. It is possible for someone to know what they are doing to make long term profits over the long run. A person that doesn't know what they are doing will have a lower return.

In any case, whether or not you agree with what I've said so far... If you have 50,000 peds on your ped card, and you are doing 10 ped clicks at the crafting terminal, you can handle the extreme ups and downs without much worry. You will have a greater average return than someone putting in 100 peds at a time playing 50 pec per click crafts. I am of course talking TT values. If you can break even or profit in TT values then you most certainly will profit becuase of markup.

I know one person that ATH's as regularly as you and I global or hof. He has an INSANE ped turnover. Sure, losses are heavy for him some days, but other days his ped card goes up and up. For now I will keep his identity confidential, but he has requested my help in writing a guide which should be made available to everyone soon.

Let us suppose for a moment though that MA really does only average a 10 ped per hour take. For me, playing with a couple hundred peds at a time, it is an extreme % cost. But for someone with 10K peds or up, it is almost nothing.. The problem is the higher the cost of what you are doing the more volatile it can be and the more severe the ups and downs and if you don't have enough peds to survive the down swing, you will have to wait til another session before you might hit something that will rebalance you out.

Officially the system does not remember what you have done previously in terms of having looted big or no loot at all... But... Despite this, there does seem to be a mechanism in place that makes sure when you do hit a big one that it is big enough to recover most of your losses.

The whole point of this post though is not to get into the algorithms of loot, but to point out the more peds you deposit and the bigger you play, the better your returns will be. With a small pedroll it is very easy to be wiped out without even seen a global or a mini.

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