CRAFTING: A look at risk vs rewards

I had obtained several HMAP and Fire of Hel bp's, and had about 500 peds to work with, so I decided ok... Time to do what I never have done much... Take a big ticket item (Compared to BSM and Settler Shins, which by the way still hold my personal number 1 hof in crafting, is an uber expensive couple of prints to click... And I did them on full condition. I had a rather remarkable run of luck, was actually somewhat global spamming. No hofs though.

The only logical conclusions that can be drawn:

1. The more expensive the TT clicks are, the more likely a hof or global will happen, and the more often they will happen.

2. If you are going to do full condition, you want to be able to do a significant number of clicks. If you risk everything on just a few, you may hit it big but most likely will go broke. I did a full condition 1600 click run on BSM, it took me 400 clicks before ANYTHING, EVEN RESIDUE on partial successes dropped. Literally 400 dry clicks. Then, I started globalling every few hundred clicks. Had I only did a 400 click run, on full condition, I would have been broke.

3. Yes, it takes nerves of iron on a crap run, but if the run is long enough it will balance out somehow. Unfortunately it might be days or weeks later if you can't run a big enough run :(

4. If you want less volatility and a safer return percentage, keep the slider in the green. As long as it is green, I've always done ok. If I do full condition, its either a really good run or a VERY bad run. So this is why you need a very big run for it to balance out.

5. I think a lot of people start getting disgusted on expensive clicks with little coming out and quit before the big one hits, but, theoretically, you might quit after 500 clicks, but the 5000th click might be the ATH. You just don't know. So, I firmly believe that every click you do, every bomb you drop, every mob you shoot, brings you closer to hitting something big. For one thing, it is statistically impossible to go forever and not hof, and not global if you are turning the peds over.

6. The only way to get big hofs, is to turn over a LOT of ped. And a LOT of clicks. Even on quantity, if you turn over enough ped and clicks, a big one will happen.

I know it is hard to not get discouraged... My best advice if you are ONLY seeking uber hofs and don't care about the item being made, your best returns seem to be doing those prints which A. are done the most, and B. have the lowest Markup on materials. The system is designed to figure everything in TT values, and any markup is simply a user to user transaction, and well... Any markup on any loot is what has come out of someone elses pocket, or yours for that matter.

A lot of this is common sense at least to me... But if any of this information is helpful to anyone in any way, I am glad to have shared it.