Turning Crafting into a Calculated Risk

I've just discovered that Entropia Tracker allows you to check ubers on all the various items and mobs. You can set the threshold to 1,000 ped to 10,000 ped if you want. When you run the report, it tells you the recent ubers over that amount you've chosen for that item, how many days and hours since the last one went, how many peds of globals/hofs turned over since then on that item, and how long it has currently been since the last uber.

There is no way to say for certain that ANYTHING is overdue.. However, it would be foolish to say on any given item that an Uber will NEVER hit... Therefore, the next most logical conclusion is to say, the longer the amount of time and the more peds cycled on an item without an Uber, the closer it is getting to the time an Uber will hit!

I guess what I am saying is, if more peds have been cycled and more time elapsed than is normal for an uber on that item for that amount, then, in all likelihood, it is overdue. But many factors play into who is going to get it when it hits. What is your blueprint QR... What are your skills. How many people are crafting it right now. And part of it is simply being on the right crafting machine at the right time.

Now, it is a documented fact, that I know someone who ATH'd on a crafting machine that virtually a whole soc was using to craft on because it was a good machine. Since it paid out that ATH, very few people that I know of who use that machine have had a good crafting run on it since. This doesn't prove anything, to be sure... But... Every server has a hot and cold cycle. Not all places in EU are hot at the same time, not all are cold either. I had dropped like 30 NRF's on TI, then moved to Shinook and first drop gave me a 50 ped alferix. Well, the conclusion is simple. TI's loot was on a take cycle, and Shinook was paying out, and the server seen an imbalance and crapped out my global.

I really do believe you have to be in the right place at the right time doing the right things at the right time to stand a chance of getting an uber. This gives it the appearance of being accidental when it does finally happen, because it is only by chance that you will be doing all the right things at the one magical moment.

So... I just wanted to share the excitement over a new possibly useful tool I found, and perhaps a new way at figuring out what to craft, since that is a common question I am faced with.

And yes... EVEN BASIC FILTERS HAVE HAD FOUR DIGIT HOFS. Just as surely as I have witnessed non-mutant chirpies having four digits too.