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Thursday, June 2, 2011

Arguments That A Loot Pool Exists

No one really knows for sure if there IS a loot pool... But if you look at Entropia Tracker, the amounts of hofs and globals every day is up and down a bit from one day to the next, but it seems reflective of how much playing is done, i.e. how many Peds are being spent for the loot to come out of it. This is an issue that is perhaps hotly debated by some, I know I have had my debates... So I just want to put my opinion out there, everything I can observe and let you guys have at it.

First: If there were no loot pool, and if loots were truly random, then there should be times when there are MORE peds in circulation than what's been deposited and paid for. There is no indication of this happening. It appears the algorithm operates with a "house edge", that runs tend to get smaller, although the distribution of your wins seem to be random for sure. Everything designed into the game, decay for instance, is indicative of a sustainable system, therefore it is illogical for the system to be unsustainable.

Secondly:  The people who craft amps all day on full condition sometimes get 5 or 6 globals/hofs in a row after somewhat long clicks with nothing. And the people who spent tremendous amount of peds mining, end up hitting mining global spam, and with or without amps, I've never been able to do this, if it were random loot values, I would have by now... But only the ubers can get quick successive globals/hofs, but the amount of peds theyve turned over is far greater, so it seems they get a bigger piece of the loot pool, but that's fair really.

Thirdly: If Mindark were allowing random loots, with no basis in how much they took in, why do most of our loot patterns seem to be usually a little below what we put in? Hmmmm? I've played for nearly four years without a Tower. My biggest hoff was 906 Peds I think it was??? I have also burned through about 20 OA 102's, 103's and 104's without any hof. This seems inordinately off from what should have happened, that's a lot of bombs not to have a hof that were amped. If the game were like Anarchy Online, I'd probably be a millionaire, hell, for a basic weapon it costs hundreds of thousands of credits even though the missions pay a paltry thousand or two here and there. There is no indication that there are loots based on anything other than what the system has taken in.

Fourthly: If loots WERE random without any basis in what you've spent, then we should be able to craft Basic Filters and ATH, but that don't happen. In fact, if you look at Basic Filters highest hofs on Entropia Tracker, it's around 500 peds... Hmmm, 5 pecs per click in TT value, 500 peds in loot... That is the highest ratio between cost/click and hof. As you go up the charts to more expensive items, you see lower multiples, but is my theory that say, 10,000 times the click cost is the maximum multiplier in crafting, I could be wrong, but there is no indication that I am at current times. So showing that what you can get is linked to what you spend, I think I've won half the argument.

Lastly: Even if there is no literal loot pool and things are determined on the fly, they have an algorithm that more than likely ensures no more is paid out than is taken in. They have a great system that they've put such a large investment into, that has been designed from the ground up for sustainability, at least I see sustainable design implemented everywhere. WHY on Earth would anyone want to run their business model in such a way as to discredit and not take advantage of the designs that exist in the game? The Auction House fees... Decay... Ammo, Bombs,... Trade Terminal sales... All they have to do to make money is to keep a percentage of these things and if they pay the rest out, who cares, all it has to do is be cycled a few more times and they will have a bigger share on it, some people will come out ahead, but more people will lose a few peds than will gain a few, in terms of TT... The real gains come from MarkUp. Always remember that. Without Markup, I fear no one would profit much.

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