I am thinking about heading to Arkadia for their gold rush that is supposed to go live with the next update. There are Arkoins that will be able to be found worth 1 pec each. There will be some alienware PC's that can be found, and some very rare golden keys and their blueprints that will start to drop, and it is advertised you can either use the keys to go treasure hunting or turn them in for 10K peds worth of Arkoins.
So...
Maybe, maybe this is the day that we as treasure hunters have waited for. I very much am anxious to see what turns out to happen on Arkadia during this event. Have they actually succeeded in an idea that will make it worthwhile for us to go there and give treasure hunting a try? I should hope so and it certainly appears to be true.
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Sunday, August 26, 2012
Economies of Scale and How It May Affect Your Results
I wanted to give all of you a new way of looking at your pedrolls...
In a casino, slot machines with higher denominations have a higher payout %. The reason is, even if you keep 10% of a penny it takes a lot of pennies for the casino to make anything. 10% of nothing is still nothing. However... When you have quarters or dollars, the casino can still make lots of money by taking a smaller percentage. The greater the amounts cycled the better returns they can afford to pay.
However, entropia is not a casino... BUT...
The official loss rate is claimed to be around 10 peds per hour of gameplay... Considering a 100 ped deposit might last me 10 hours if I am actively playing the whole time, sometimes a great deal longer or a great deal less, let's just suppose that this is the viable amount. And since no one is guaranteed a global or a hof, and near as I can tell they are randomly distributed and based on your ped turnover in some complicated algorithm... I mean, a person turning a small amount of peds tends to hit smaller hofs and globals than someone turning larger numbers of peds... I would say whatever and however MA decides what % is theirs, the returns are probably all figured out without taking into account hofs and globals.
The premise we are working with is, any time you complain about loot MA replies and says that returns are a %.... A % of what they won't tell you... A % of deposits? Then why do non depositors do pretty good? So it can't be that. A % of ped turnover would be more logical... But lets not hang up on this issue. Regardless we know MA is not in the business to run a loss and they have to make their money somehow, this necessitates it being a negative expectation game, but in how it takes and distributes is from our end, random redistribution of wealth, which I believe strongly is highly based on skill sets and play style. It is possible for someone to know what they are doing to make long term profits over the long run. A person that doesn't know what they are doing will have a lower return.
In any case, whether or not you agree with what I've said so far... If you have 50,000 peds on your ped card, and you are doing 10 ped clicks at the crafting terminal, you can handle the extreme ups and downs without much worry. You will have a greater average return than someone putting in 100 peds at a time playing 50 pec per click crafts. I am of course talking TT values. If you can break even or profit in TT values then you most certainly will profit becuase of markup.
I know one person that ATH's as regularly as you and I global or hof. He has an INSANE ped turnover. Sure, losses are heavy for him some days, but other days his ped card goes up and up. For now I will keep his identity confidential, but he has requested my help in writing a guide which should be made available to everyone soon.
Let us suppose for a moment though that MA really does only average a 10 ped per hour take. For me, playing with a couple hundred peds at a time, it is an extreme % cost. But for someone with 10K peds or up, it is almost nothing.. The problem is the higher the cost of what you are doing the more volatile it can be and the more severe the ups and downs and if you don't have enough peds to survive the down swing, you will have to wait til another session before you might hit something that will rebalance you out.
Officially the system does not remember what you have done previously in terms of having looted big or no loot at all... But... Despite this, there does seem to be a mechanism in place that makes sure when you do hit a big one that it is big enough to recover most of your losses.
The whole point of this post though is not to get into the algorithms of loot, but to point out the more peds you deposit and the bigger you play, the better your returns will be. With a small pedroll it is very easy to be wiped out without even seen a global or a mini.
In a casino, slot machines with higher denominations have a higher payout %. The reason is, even if you keep 10% of a penny it takes a lot of pennies for the casino to make anything. 10% of nothing is still nothing. However... When you have quarters or dollars, the casino can still make lots of money by taking a smaller percentage. The greater the amounts cycled the better returns they can afford to pay.
However, entropia is not a casino... BUT...
The official loss rate is claimed to be around 10 peds per hour of gameplay... Considering a 100 ped deposit might last me 10 hours if I am actively playing the whole time, sometimes a great deal longer or a great deal less, let's just suppose that this is the viable amount. And since no one is guaranteed a global or a hof, and near as I can tell they are randomly distributed and based on your ped turnover in some complicated algorithm... I mean, a person turning a small amount of peds tends to hit smaller hofs and globals than someone turning larger numbers of peds... I would say whatever and however MA decides what % is theirs, the returns are probably all figured out without taking into account hofs and globals.
The premise we are working with is, any time you complain about loot MA replies and says that returns are a %.... A % of what they won't tell you... A % of deposits? Then why do non depositors do pretty good? So it can't be that. A % of ped turnover would be more logical... But lets not hang up on this issue. Regardless we know MA is not in the business to run a loss and they have to make their money somehow, this necessitates it being a negative expectation game, but in how it takes and distributes is from our end, random redistribution of wealth, which I believe strongly is highly based on skill sets and play style. It is possible for someone to know what they are doing to make long term profits over the long run. A person that doesn't know what they are doing will have a lower return.
In any case, whether or not you agree with what I've said so far... If you have 50,000 peds on your ped card, and you are doing 10 ped clicks at the crafting terminal, you can handle the extreme ups and downs without much worry. You will have a greater average return than someone putting in 100 peds at a time playing 50 pec per click crafts. I am of course talking TT values. If you can break even or profit in TT values then you most certainly will profit becuase of markup.
I know one person that ATH's as regularly as you and I global or hof. He has an INSANE ped turnover. Sure, losses are heavy for him some days, but other days his ped card goes up and up. For now I will keep his identity confidential, but he has requested my help in writing a guide which should be made available to everyone soon.
Let us suppose for a moment though that MA really does only average a 10 ped per hour take. For me, playing with a couple hundred peds at a time, it is an extreme % cost. But for someone with 10K peds or up, it is almost nothing.. The problem is the higher the cost of what you are doing the more volatile it can be and the more severe the ups and downs and if you don't have enough peds to survive the down swing, you will have to wait til another session before you might hit something that will rebalance you out.
Officially the system does not remember what you have done previously in terms of having looted big or no loot at all... But... Despite this, there does seem to be a mechanism in place that makes sure when you do hit a big one that it is big enough to recover most of your losses.
The whole point of this post though is not to get into the algorithms of loot, but to point out the more peds you deposit and the bigger you play, the better your returns will be. With a small pedroll it is very easy to be wiped out without even seen a global or a mini.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Extractors! Updated Findings!
Well... I've used the TT extractor for a long time, and sure, I saved a fortune in repairs, but I quit hitting claims over V with just the occasional VIII. We are talking two or three months of mining without anything huge using the TT extractor. Of course Decay and spent peds fuels the loot pool. Once I started using my Extractor 104, Immediately I started hitting IX's and bigger again.
So... If you want to minimize your costs, there seems to be a direct correlation that ends up minimizing your loots as well. The whole theme seems to be the more you are spending the more loot you are likely to hit.
So in mining, I recommend using the highest level extractor you can use and afford to use. If you havn't upgraded past your low level extractors and havn't hit big claims much... Give it a try on a bigger extractor and see what happens. I think you will find it will help a lot!
So... If you want to minimize your costs, there seems to be a direct correlation that ends up minimizing your loots as well. The whole theme seems to be the more you are spending the more loot you are likely to hit.
So in mining, I recommend using the highest level extractor you can use and afford to use. If you havn't upgraded past your low level extractors and havn't hit big claims much... Give it a try on a bigger extractor and see what happens. I think you will find it will help a lot!
Monday, August 6, 2012
CRAFTING: A look at risk vs rewards
I had obtained several HMAP and Fire of Hel bp's, and had about 500 peds to work with, so I decided ok... Time to do what I never have done much... Take a big ticket item (Compared to BSM and Settler Shins, which by the way still hold my personal number 1 hof in crafting, is an uber expensive couple of prints to click... And I did them on full condition. I had a rather remarkable run of luck, was actually somewhat global spamming. No hofs though.
The only logical conclusions that can be drawn:
1. The more expensive the TT clicks are, the more likely a hof or global will happen, and the more often they will happen.
2. If you are going to do full condition, you want to be able to do a significant number of clicks. If you risk everything on just a few, you may hit it big but most likely will go broke. I did a full condition 1600 click run on BSM, it took me 400 clicks before ANYTHING, EVEN RESIDUE on partial successes dropped. Literally 400 dry clicks. Then, I started globalling every few hundred clicks. Had I only did a 400 click run, on full condition, I would have been broke.
3. Yes, it takes nerves of iron on a crap run, but if the run is long enough it will balance out somehow. Unfortunately it might be days or weeks later if you can't run a big enough run :(
4. If you want less volatility and a safer return percentage, keep the slider in the green. As long as it is green, I've always done ok. If I do full condition, its either a really good run or a VERY bad run. So this is why you need a very big run for it to balance out.
5. I think a lot of people start getting disgusted on expensive clicks with little coming out and quit before the big one hits, but, theoretically, you might quit after 500 clicks, but the 5000th click might be the ATH. You just don't know. So, I firmly believe that every click you do, every bomb you drop, every mob you shoot, brings you closer to hitting something big. For one thing, it is statistically impossible to go forever and not hof, and not global if you are turning the peds over.
6. The only way to get big hofs, is to turn over a LOT of ped. And a LOT of clicks. Even on quantity, if you turn over enough ped and clicks, a big one will happen.
I know it is hard to not get discouraged... My best advice if you are ONLY seeking uber hofs and don't care about the item being made, your best returns seem to be doing those prints which A. are done the most, and B. have the lowest Markup on materials. The system is designed to figure everything in TT values, and any markup is simply a user to user transaction, and well... Any markup on any loot is what has come out of someone elses pocket, or yours for that matter.
A lot of this is common sense at least to me... But if any of this information is helpful to anyone in any way, I am glad to have shared it.
The only logical conclusions that can be drawn:
1. The more expensive the TT clicks are, the more likely a hof or global will happen, and the more often they will happen.
2. If you are going to do full condition, you want to be able to do a significant number of clicks. If you risk everything on just a few, you may hit it big but most likely will go broke. I did a full condition 1600 click run on BSM, it took me 400 clicks before ANYTHING, EVEN RESIDUE on partial successes dropped. Literally 400 dry clicks. Then, I started globalling every few hundred clicks. Had I only did a 400 click run, on full condition, I would have been broke.
3. Yes, it takes nerves of iron on a crap run, but if the run is long enough it will balance out somehow. Unfortunately it might be days or weeks later if you can't run a big enough run :(
4. If you want less volatility and a safer return percentage, keep the slider in the green. As long as it is green, I've always done ok. If I do full condition, its either a really good run or a VERY bad run. So this is why you need a very big run for it to balance out.
5. I think a lot of people start getting disgusted on expensive clicks with little coming out and quit before the big one hits, but, theoretically, you might quit after 500 clicks, but the 5000th click might be the ATH. You just don't know. So, I firmly believe that every click you do, every bomb you drop, every mob you shoot, brings you closer to hitting something big. For one thing, it is statistically impossible to go forever and not hof, and not global if you are turning the peds over.
6. The only way to get big hofs, is to turn over a LOT of ped. And a LOT of clicks. Even on quantity, if you turn over enough ped and clicks, a big one will happen.
I know it is hard to not get discouraged... My best advice if you are ONLY seeking uber hofs and don't care about the item being made, your best returns seem to be doing those prints which A. are done the most, and B. have the lowest Markup on materials. The system is designed to figure everything in TT values, and any markup is simply a user to user transaction, and well... Any markup on any loot is what has come out of someone elses pocket, or yours for that matter.
A lot of this is common sense at least to me... But if any of this information is helpful to anyone in any way, I am glad to have shared it.
One region versus Moving All Over
Something for you to think about... In my own experience, and everyone may have some different results too... But just in my own play style I can tell you that focusing on one area and doing 90% of my hunting mining and crafting has done better return wise over the long run than moving from TP to TP to TP and hoping I am in the right place at the right time.
See, it's like this. If I spend all of my time on Treasure Island, then it is safe to say that all of my hofs, globals, and ATH's will be on Treasure Island. If I move around a lot, I won't know where to focus on, and I will waste my resources trying to figure it out.
So, I may have covered this, but when I got my four digit hof of 1322 cobalt... I spent one month solid on Treasure Island. Did ALL of my crafting, hunting, and mining on TI. All of my ped turnover was on TI. What I noticed was, over time, my average loot increased a little, average global sizes increased, frequency increased, not just mining, but crafting too. I hit the hof, and kept doing alright. As soon as I started moving around and TP jumping frequently, returns went BAD. Now, I am starting to focus on one area again, and on the average, it is working better for me.
So,,, If you can't get good returns... I suggest you pick one area, focus on it for maybe a week or two, and just see if something big doesn't happen for you too :-)
Afterall.. You probably won't lose any more than you already have lost!
But if you pick an area, Please note what resources are there, and use a finder appropriate to finding that stuff for best results!
See, it's like this. If I spend all of my time on Treasure Island, then it is safe to say that all of my hofs, globals, and ATH's will be on Treasure Island. If I move around a lot, I won't know where to focus on, and I will waste my resources trying to figure it out.
So, I may have covered this, but when I got my four digit hof of 1322 cobalt... I spent one month solid on Treasure Island. Did ALL of my crafting, hunting, and mining on TI. All of my ped turnover was on TI. What I noticed was, over time, my average loot increased a little, average global sizes increased, frequency increased, not just mining, but crafting too. I hit the hof, and kept doing alright. As soon as I started moving around and TP jumping frequently, returns went BAD. Now, I am starting to focus on one area again, and on the average, it is working better for me.
So,,, If you can't get good returns... I suggest you pick one area, focus on it for maybe a week or two, and just see if something big doesn't happen for you too :-)
Afterall.. You probably won't lose any more than you already have lost!
But if you pick an area, Please note what resources are there, and use a finder appropriate to finding that stuff for best results!
Attributes and Returns... Conclusion
After studying numerous loot versus deposit statistics that I and friends have gathered... It is the opinion of this Blogger and Entropian that Attributes are the main determining factor in your ability to loot well. Skills obviously impact your abilities to do things efficiently, since you can't economically hunt second entities if your skills don't even allow you to max out an Opalo. However, looking back even to my own instance of starting out from scratch... It took me about a year to get my first global I think. The second was 6 months after that, then another 3 months later... But the key thing here is... The higher my intelligence, and other attributes got, the more regularly I have globals and runs that break even or profit.
All the people I know that regularly uber hof or ATH, have attributes well above the 60's... I've deposited a modest amount over the years, and my attributes aren't as high as I would like to see them, but I know the more you spend and the faster you spend it, the faster your attributes go up. Chipping in and out doesn't affect any of them, EXCEPT your health.
So, with this in mind... You will all hit big hofs. It is only a matter of playing LONG enough for them to roll your way... I have only had one four digit hof in my 5 years on Entropia. I knew EVENTUALLY it had to come, and it was a TOTAL surprise when it did. I cannot for the life of me imagine hitting a 5 digit or even a 6 digit, and should something like that happen I may need an ambulance!
But, I think the whole time that it takes for you to start looting big and looting well, is simply the time it takes for you to hit certain amounts of attributes. Skills don't seem to directly influence your loot as much as attributes. And I've looked over the numbers of dozens of avatars and the information they were willing to let me review.
Of course, I can't prove this, and MA can say anything they want, but I feel very strongly that attributes are the key to doing well. The second part of it is of course to ONLY use items you are maxed on. And if you want to go right into using big guns, the skills are pretty much TT food right now for weapons, so get the skills to be able to max them out... I am pretty sure that the skills will pay for themselves with your abilities to use your powerful weapons with maxed ratings.
I've spent the past several months examining trends and relationships between attributes and loots, and have discovered there are certain ratios that tend to manifest themselves... And if I can make the data more organized and presentable, I will probably gladly make it public via my blog, but for now... Just keep it in your mind and think about it. I may not be 100% right, but I know for a fact I am not 100% wrong either!!!
EU is dynamic. If one thing is changed, any number of other outcomes are changed. Together, all the people playing and doing the things they do, makes up the algorithms that govern how loot is distributed. If everyone were to go back say 10 minutes in time, and do something completely different than they did 10 minutes ago, I am pretty you would not see ANYTHING happen the same the second time through. It is a complex universe that we play in.
I really don't believe all theories are completely wrong, rather that some are more true than others at one time or another. MA probably modifies things from time to time so that when a theory is right on the money, it will end up appearing false so people will form new theories... So my own theory is, perhaps MA changes how things work from time to time just so no one cracks the system.
I think I have rambled enough for now, but I look forward to bringing you all some new and exciting posts to read! Thanks so much for making this blog a success... We've just passed 25,000 views!!!
All the people I know that regularly uber hof or ATH, have attributes well above the 60's... I've deposited a modest amount over the years, and my attributes aren't as high as I would like to see them, but I know the more you spend and the faster you spend it, the faster your attributes go up. Chipping in and out doesn't affect any of them, EXCEPT your health.
So, with this in mind... You will all hit big hofs. It is only a matter of playing LONG enough for them to roll your way... I have only had one four digit hof in my 5 years on Entropia. I knew EVENTUALLY it had to come, and it was a TOTAL surprise when it did. I cannot for the life of me imagine hitting a 5 digit or even a 6 digit, and should something like that happen I may need an ambulance!
But, I think the whole time that it takes for you to start looting big and looting well, is simply the time it takes for you to hit certain amounts of attributes. Skills don't seem to directly influence your loot as much as attributes. And I've looked over the numbers of dozens of avatars and the information they were willing to let me review.
Of course, I can't prove this, and MA can say anything they want, but I feel very strongly that attributes are the key to doing well. The second part of it is of course to ONLY use items you are maxed on. And if you want to go right into using big guns, the skills are pretty much TT food right now for weapons, so get the skills to be able to max them out... I am pretty sure that the skills will pay for themselves with your abilities to use your powerful weapons with maxed ratings.
I've spent the past several months examining trends and relationships between attributes and loots, and have discovered there are certain ratios that tend to manifest themselves... And if I can make the data more organized and presentable, I will probably gladly make it public via my blog, but for now... Just keep it in your mind and think about it. I may not be 100% right, but I know for a fact I am not 100% wrong either!!!
EU is dynamic. If one thing is changed, any number of other outcomes are changed. Together, all the people playing and doing the things they do, makes up the algorithms that govern how loot is distributed. If everyone were to go back say 10 minutes in time, and do something completely different than they did 10 minutes ago, I am pretty you would not see ANYTHING happen the same the second time through. It is a complex universe that we play in.
I really don't believe all theories are completely wrong, rather that some are more true than others at one time or another. MA probably modifies things from time to time so that when a theory is right on the money, it will end up appearing false so people will form new theories... So my own theory is, perhaps MA changes how things work from time to time just so no one cracks the system.
I think I have rambled enough for now, but I look forward to bringing you all some new and exciting posts to read! Thanks so much for making this blog a success... We've just passed 25,000 views!!!
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