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Monday, June 16, 2014

ARK DEEDS: Paltry Returns or Serious Considerations? A Fresh Look.

Well... I see my 1 pec per day per deed revenue and think wow, thats sad. But... You know what? In the real world, 5% per year is the magic number. If you compound it, and add to it a reasonable amount each month, in 10 to 20 years you will be wealthy. Of course the limited number of deeds available would eventually put a price squeeze on the deeds maybe negating some of the compounding effect...

What I see right now:

Ark deeds are paying about 7.5% to 8% per year in dividends if all things remain the same as they have been the past few days. The past few days I've gotten a pec a day per deed.

I bought my deeds at 47 ped each on caly auction.

There are say 365 days a year more or less.

This means a deed is expected to yield 3.65 peds a year.

If you divide 36.5 cents by $4.70 you end up with 7.76% interest per year.

If they would run big events like that big gold rush event they had a while back, then yeah, you bet we could see even better numbers.

The point here is, if you took the same money and put it in your savings account at a bank, you MIGHT get half a percent per year on your savings. Inflation is up around 3 to 5% in any given year if not more. That is the hidden tax we pay due to our governments forcing us into fiat money. If you can't beat the rate of inflation your savings are LOSING you money. This is why metals are favored as investments in the real world.

No one knows the long term state Entropia will be in. But as long as land owners aren't in a hurry to sell off their estates for any amount of money they can get. As long as the price of CLD's and Ark deeds isn't crashing near zero.. I think in the end these are the indicators as to whether or not Entropia will survive. Those at the top will find out first and if you start seeing EVERYTHING going up for sale at any price, you know the game is doomed. Despite all the "chicken little" predictions that the "sky is falling", I don't see it happening. Too many people have too much to lose if entropia goes under. A lot of money in the game is pretty much in the hands of scammers to be honest with you. The interesting thing about a casino, or a non casino but real cash economy like Entropia, if I show you two dollars, can you tell me which one is honest and which one is dishonest? I suspect those who have in the past perhaps even laundered money through Entropia, I am sure it must happen, would not let such a mechanism as Entropia go away. Somehow there will always be a big enough influx of deposits to save the company.

I will say I do not believe it is being run sustainably right now. MA needs to take a lesson in running a business. Seriously, the CEO needs to have a meeting with Donald Trump and learn how to REALLY run a business, and how to REALLY treat your customers. If all the casinos in Vegas operated the way MindArk does, the whole city would have dried up and blown away by now. When I was a noob, it only took a year or two for loot to really get to averaging out good. Now, it's taking years for the loot to average out to anything meaningful. Instead of the 1K to 2K clicks it once took to have a nice average crafting return, it now takes 10K to 100K clicks to get that same average. If you quit before it averages you've lost everything. If you keep going til you do get it to average out, you could go bankrupt. It is simply too high variance for it to keep players happy.

Yes I got sidetracked... But ok.. I just don't want to see Entropia shutting down, and I hope enough people will continue putting pressure on MindArk to get them to see what they need to do to make it more sustainable so that people WILL be more secure about depositing larger sums into the game.

So, are the deeds worth getting or not? If you get them cheaply enough, and you aren't hurting for peds or cash, then yes, it is better than a savings account. But, the ROI isn't as high as it should be to offset the degree of risk involved. I expect this to change over time, hopefully for the better. The thing is, if you have faith that things will improve, then we are on the ground floor right now. If you think this is the beginning of the end, well, there you have it.

I think back to the good old days when the asteroid was CND. I fully expected Rocktropia to do as well as the asteroid did, because it had seemed Neverdie was better at managing things than Mindark ever was. Of course it seems Mindark loves tying the hands of it's planet partners. This brings me back to an earlier argument, that Mindark is trying to do with the Soviet Union failed to do: centrally plan the entire economy. The loot distributions, what the planet partners can do, is all centrally planned by Mindark. If the game was ran honestly an sustainably, it shouldn't need much central planning at all. They just are not transparent enough for us to know exactly how honest and fair everything is. But the point is, in a leap of faith, I set out to craft every warbond I possibly could firmly believing they would turn into something down the road. I figured I was seeing around the curve. Now who knows... But what I do know is 1. I have made more crafting them than I invested in the mats to make them including all the failed attempts and 2. Not only do I own the Entropialife page on warbonds, but I have many hundreds of peds TT value of them stockpiled waiting for that day that may never come. Even if they turn out to be nothing, I still made peds on them. If I were to TT them all, I guarantee in a few months plans for them would be rolled out. That is how bad my luck is. So I will hang onto them indefinitely. It's like buying penny stocks. You only need one of them to make it and you've got it made.

I hope I've been of some help to all of you. I just wanted to dispell the myth that Ark deeds aren't doing much.

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