I know at first glance, condition crafting looks like a lost cause... You might get just a few successes and a few partials in a hundred clicks or none at all... Knowing a crafter who does huge runs on full condition consistently, I have an adequate supply of information from which to make some conclusions.
Suppose you have 5K Peds.
Suppose average markup on materials to click ore amps is 130%.
We all know the system rewards only based on TT burn of materials and supplies. Markup is not a factor, although it is arguable... i.e. Use a VRX seeker 2000, you will get more ruga and rares than you would using a cheaper finder that is TT food... So possibly the higher the MU needed to craft an item, the better quality of residue (gemstones) and blueprints (1 or 2 click but ATH or bust prints).
However, you are essentially making TT food. No one is going to buy the 5 million level 2 lights or level 2s that you would click over the life of your crafting career. You could get markup on a few I am sure, but the market just isn't there to make one run, sell all amps for markup, and do another run. Instead, residue is your best bet... But also, there is something you must consider.
Scenario 1... You craft quantity. You aren't going to stop crafting til you hit a big hof probably. Problem is, big hofs on quantity are rare unless doing L prints. Not saying it won't happen, but you will get more smaller successes and less bigger successes. This means, more clicks have to be done to hit a big jackpot, and that means even more money will have been lost to the markup of the ingredients.
Scenario 2... You craft condition, when you succeed, it counts for something. You have to do fewer clicks to hit a big jackpot in the long run than you would if you were doing quantity. Big jackpot simply means an amount that would make you so happy, you would be in shock and happy to take a break for a while. We all know how hard it is to quit when you are losing a bit an wanting to win it back... Either hit big or bust. This results in fewer clicks being done, and less of your peds being consumed for markup on materials.
Eventually, the loot does balance out somewhat... It might not be today, or tomorrow, or a month from now... But rest assured you will get your good loot if you persist. You only lose if you quit playing before it can balance.
The final consideration is the size of your bankroll: If you cannot do more than a handful of clicks, you should not attempt condition. Either you hit it big or go broke. If you have big bankroll, you can weather the ups and downs.
Also, if you are on a cold crafting machine, don't feel bad about switching to another one. Every TP seems to indeed have its own server and is in a different looting phase. There are some areas that are taking more than others, and others paying more than yet others.
If your success rate is not maxed on that print, my advice is not to click it on condition.
Things I notice on condition crafting:
With a sufficient number of clicks, I do about the same as I do on quantity, it's just more exciting to watch. And I get rarer blueprints. Globals are more frequent.
Skill gains are quicker.
With that, I will leave you to your own devices in planning what your next course of action is.
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Thursday, January 17, 2013
Wednesday, January 16, 2013
CLD Payout Update
I never wanted to buy CLD's. I never have. Instead, I have a different plan in mind... Let's just say I am... Speculating on some things in Entropia Universe that I am not willing to divulge at this time at peril of it throwing a monkey wrench into my possible opportunity. I also don't want to go on the record and start any rumors from my theories which may or may not be true. However, I know a lot of the importance of my blog is in providing you with actual working theories to improve your returns, so please expect in the next few days my new posts that I will reveal some patterns that have proven true 100% of the time. Even that said, they are still theories since there is no way to know for sure, other than their results, which indeed seem to corroborate them. It is time to get back to business as usual, here at Entropia Universe Guide.
While the 50 cent per week dividends that were common in the beginning of the program, per CLD, are far far better returns than any savings account or certificate of deposit with any bank... Mind Ark is not guaranteed to remain solvent in the amount of time it would require for the CLD's to actually return their initial investment, which was about 3 years, now I suspect more like 5 years.
The initial terms were, 50% of the profits from Calypso to be paid evenly among the CLD holders.
When the earnings reports and all were made public, turns out that MA has dropped it from 50% to 30%. This information came from a few concerned CLD holders. If this information proves in error I will correct this posting.
There is nothing to guarantee MA will maintain a certain payout ratio. They seem to change terms on the fly, with no prior notices. They don't even give us notice in advance when there is going to be an update!!! Well, unless you count the "Servers will be offline in 30 minutes" in red chat text... And maybe, maybe from checking the support tab a day before they update... But most times I can't find any information on the updates until a few days AFTER they already took the servers down and patched. I would like to see them be more forthcoming with what future patches will hold, and what day they will go into effect.
As far as investment opportunities are concerned, just keep in mind that CLD's are on par with Stocks. They can be a good value one day, and worthless the next. Anything you have in Entropia, you should expect can be lost. With that in mind, you should never put in anything you cannot afford to safely lose, and you certainly cannot go by past performance to be an indicator of future performance.
With that, this is the "Goldbaron" signing off.
While the 50 cent per week dividends that were common in the beginning of the program, per CLD, are far far better returns than any savings account or certificate of deposit with any bank... Mind Ark is not guaranteed to remain solvent in the amount of time it would require for the CLD's to actually return their initial investment, which was about 3 years, now I suspect more like 5 years.
The initial terms were, 50% of the profits from Calypso to be paid evenly among the CLD holders.
When the earnings reports and all were made public, turns out that MA has dropped it from 50% to 30%. This information came from a few concerned CLD holders. If this information proves in error I will correct this posting.
There is nothing to guarantee MA will maintain a certain payout ratio. They seem to change terms on the fly, with no prior notices. They don't even give us notice in advance when there is going to be an update!!! Well, unless you count the "Servers will be offline in 30 minutes" in red chat text... And maybe, maybe from checking the support tab a day before they update... But most times I can't find any information on the updates until a few days AFTER they already took the servers down and patched. I would like to see them be more forthcoming with what future patches will hold, and what day they will go into effect.
As far as investment opportunities are concerned, just keep in mind that CLD's are on par with Stocks. They can be a good value one day, and worthless the next. Anything you have in Entropia, you should expect can be lost. With that in mind, you should never put in anything you cannot afford to safely lose, and you certainly cannot go by past performance to be an indicator of future performance.
With that, this is the "Goldbaron" signing off.
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Regarding my Open Letter Post...
It might appear that I am advocating that MA make it easier for pirates to loot people by saying the exploit of risk free space travel needs to be fixed, which I am aware from the recent update notes is in the works or already has been fixed.
I am neither taking the side of the Pirate nor the Trader. The only way the markets can be the markets is if everyone has to play by the same rules: This is to say no special priviledges... i.e. you only are safe in space if you fly on a mothership and log off before you leave and back on when you get there.
RT, Ark, have came a long ways. Cyrene has issues but from what I understand they are due to MA holding them up on things like the Mechs, which is a pity, I know many people have quit because Mechs were not released yet on Cyrene. I know many who quit because they took too long rolling out Treasure Hunting on Ark... All in all, the planets are starting to mature nicely, except maybe for NI :P You know... I actually forgot about NI until now...
Based on what I see... I would have to rank the planets in the following order as to their economic strength and importance:
Calypso
Rocktropia
Arkadia
Cyrene
Next Island
So... Rocktropia is the natural starting point for me. It is maturing. There are starting to be uses for materials and things... But the bottom line is, virtually everything is bought up and loaded onto motherships by traders and taken to Calypso.
My uber crafter friend couldn't even do 1% of his normal size runs that he does on Caly if he were on Rock. 1% of his normal size run would dry up every available stone and ingot of resources available not just on the AH, but from traders too. As a result, he must stay on Calypso. RT, Ark, Cyrene, need players like this. But there is no point for them to try when everything is cheaper on Caly, and in such abundance. The only way to get uber players like this over there is to make sure the whole playing field is fair and balanced, and that will ensure a more proper availability of resources at more stable prices allowing domestic crafters to take root on their respective planets without having to move to Calypso.
Shutting down the exploit on space travel means that every planet's economy will normalize. Resources will still ship out, just in smaller quantities, under the more discerning care of it's traders. They will have to be careful, and perhaps invest in convoys to prevent being looted. Safety in numbers... Might even see the EU equivalent of the Merchant Marine spring up. This is healthy all the way around.
Traders will start sticking at one planet or another more, buying and selling local resources, and importing what they can... And certainly not over exporting to the point of crafters starving for lack of materials or excessive prices.
No one right now will move to their favorite planets because why should they if they can't get the materials they need to craft, or the weapons they like to use, or the tools and armor. Everyone gravitates towards Calypso. Sure, MA has a conflict of interest, because it still has a stake in Calypso. It really could care less what the other planets do because it knows it will assimilate all the players that move to Calypso.
The sooner the markets stabilize across the universe, the more likely those with big bankrolls and high roller status will move around, explore, and help establish these fledgling planets. Ideally, we will want to see a varied set of markups on all the planets. That is one mistake MA made I believe... They have not yet made the markup charts planetary based, they still are based on ALL planets which largely means Calypso since all the buying and selling of consequence goes on there. Not every planet should judge it's market values by the same ruler. What we hope to see is varied markups on all planets relative to the supply and demand on that planet for that item or resource. This helps traders spot opportunities to fill, and the markets will tend towards equilibrium via the process of trading.
I am neither taking the side of the Pirate nor the Trader. The only way the markets can be the markets is if everyone has to play by the same rules: This is to say no special priviledges... i.e. you only are safe in space if you fly on a mothership and log off before you leave and back on when you get there.
RT, Ark, have came a long ways. Cyrene has issues but from what I understand they are due to MA holding them up on things like the Mechs, which is a pity, I know many people have quit because Mechs were not released yet on Cyrene. I know many who quit because they took too long rolling out Treasure Hunting on Ark... All in all, the planets are starting to mature nicely, except maybe for NI :P You know... I actually forgot about NI until now...
Based on what I see... I would have to rank the planets in the following order as to their economic strength and importance:
Calypso
Rocktropia
Arkadia
Cyrene
Next Island
So... Rocktropia is the natural starting point for me. It is maturing. There are starting to be uses for materials and things... But the bottom line is, virtually everything is bought up and loaded onto motherships by traders and taken to Calypso.
My uber crafter friend couldn't even do 1% of his normal size runs that he does on Caly if he were on Rock. 1% of his normal size run would dry up every available stone and ingot of resources available not just on the AH, but from traders too. As a result, he must stay on Calypso. RT, Ark, Cyrene, need players like this. But there is no point for them to try when everything is cheaper on Caly, and in such abundance. The only way to get uber players like this over there is to make sure the whole playing field is fair and balanced, and that will ensure a more proper availability of resources at more stable prices allowing domestic crafters to take root on their respective planets without having to move to Calypso.
Shutting down the exploit on space travel means that every planet's economy will normalize. Resources will still ship out, just in smaller quantities, under the more discerning care of it's traders. They will have to be careful, and perhaps invest in convoys to prevent being looted. Safety in numbers... Might even see the EU equivalent of the Merchant Marine spring up. This is healthy all the way around.
Traders will start sticking at one planet or another more, buying and selling local resources, and importing what they can... And certainly not over exporting to the point of crafters starving for lack of materials or excessive prices.
No one right now will move to their favorite planets because why should they if they can't get the materials they need to craft, or the weapons they like to use, or the tools and armor. Everyone gravitates towards Calypso. Sure, MA has a conflict of interest, because it still has a stake in Calypso. It really could care less what the other planets do because it knows it will assimilate all the players that move to Calypso.
The sooner the markets stabilize across the universe, the more likely those with big bankrolls and high roller status will move around, explore, and help establish these fledgling planets. Ideally, we will want to see a varied set of markups on all the planets. That is one mistake MA made I believe... They have not yet made the markup charts planetary based, they still are based on ALL planets which largely means Calypso since all the buying and selling of consequence goes on there. Not every planet should judge it's market values by the same ruler. What we hope to see is varied markups on all planets relative to the supply and demand on that planet for that item or resource. This helps traders spot opportunities to fill, and the markets will tend towards equilibrium via the process of trading.
MINERS HAVEN UPDATE: Miner Friendly Again?
It would appear my flaming boycott had an impact on Land area owners. Atrox Valley I believe it was had a mining tax BELOW 1%!!!! Kudos to the LA Owner! I will be mining every opportunity I get there!
Z apparently has thinned out the Armax spawns on the old Miners Haven LA. Or is it Heaven? Well it may have been Miners Heaven, but it's still not quite back to that yet... But, it is mostly wide open and miner friendly!!! Although... I haven't had many good claims there the last couple times I was through, but to be honest, Calypso has been almost as bad as the Asteroid for any mining... And THAT is bad!
I want to leave a reminder to all LA Owners: Even the Land Grab winners...
MAKE SURE that you denote the ores and enmatters that are findable in that area in the info. If I walk into a land area that has no list in the info box of ores and enmatters, and all I see are tax rates, I am not likely to drop many bombs!!! Unless I know from past experience what is there.
Z apparently has thinned out the Armax spawns on the old Miners Haven LA. Or is it Heaven? Well it may have been Miners Heaven, but it's still not quite back to that yet... But, it is mostly wide open and miner friendly!!! Although... I haven't had many good claims there the last couple times I was through, but to be honest, Calypso has been almost as bad as the Asteroid for any mining... And THAT is bad!
I want to leave a reminder to all LA Owners: Even the Land Grab winners...
MAKE SURE that you denote the ores and enmatters that are findable in that area in the info. If I walk into a land area that has no list in the info box of ores and enmatters, and all I see are tax rates, I am not likely to drop many bombs!!! Unless I know from past experience what is there.
January 2013 New Years Advice, Comments, Etc.
I am sorry I was unable to get here to wish you all happy holidays and a merry new year... But here we are, another year gone where I don't know, but let's hope time slows down a bit so we can enjoy life. I swear, the clock starts spinning any faster might as well hook a generator to it... That's just about how bad time seems to fly any more.
There are a few issues I want to touch on.
A. Yes, the Android app is working from what I am told. I hear people might be having issues with it but it is working. As of now, you do not need to have your blueprints in books to be able to use them at the crafting terminal. This may change, who knows. And from what I see, it doesn't seem to matter what planet my prints are on, I seem perfectly able to use them, which makes sense. An app like this needs global access to all your items if it is to work. But who knows where things will end up after a while with the way MA tinkers with stuff.
B. Mining is inexplicably volatile and high risk. EVEN ON CALYPSO, you can go 50 bombs without a claim. This is ridiculous. And the software doesn't exactly do anything to balance it out either. If I didn't know any better I would say MA fubared the mining grid and won't come forward and admit to it. On the other hand, I visited FOMA. Please, don't be foolish enough to go there. Do so at your own risk. I paid 150 peds for a V oil before I realized why I vowed never to go back to FOMA, but I decided it couldn't have stayed that bad forever... Ummm yeah right. FOMA is definitely having issues. If you do go, you are going to want at least 10,000 drops for it to average out. I have done 1,000 drop amped runs without so much as a global, so it is forseable that 10K drops MIGHT give you a shot at something. But if you ask me, it's not worth the stress. There are a few things I can tell you... 1. You cannot buy a hof. 2. You cannot buy a global. They seem to happen on their own accord. So don't plan on being able to hit anything just because you are running big amps.
C. ROCKTROPIA: Loot is infinitely better balanced for me on RT. That said, it may not be for you or the next guy. Instead of 25% returns like is normal for me on Caly no matter what I do these days, RT actually keeps me around the 80% and up range on a run, doesn't matter if I craft, mine, or hunt. So I want to applaud the RT team for keeping a fair and balanced planet.
Mining advice: The F103 seems to be golden in Hell, and it is definitely doing better than the 105 on the surface for me. In general the ores on RT are shallower than elsewhere... Not saying you won't hit well with a deep finder of course... But I've tried most finders on RT, and the F103 is the one I keep going back to when I am there. If you are not doing well on RT, try either the Demonic or the F103, I think you will notice a big difference. And I still have not hit a SOOTO on RT.
Crafting: The RT armor prints, and tool prints available at the technician are quite cheap per click to craft, and I notice I gain more skill on RT than elsewhere. If you want to cheaply skill, clicking these prints on RT might be the answer. It certainly seems to be for me, and even on full condition crafting I can usually break even or profit even on a short run.
If there is ANY resources you need, and you are on RT... Please do us a favor and place orders for it... I mean, when we don't see anything listed on the AH, and we don't see orders, we don't tend to know someone needs it unless we advertise in Lagoon and someone speaks up. If we know something is in demand we are less likely to TT it or "give" it to a trader for peanuts.
Hunting: I can definitely say that my loot is best with ARK weaponry... Who knows why, but I see a huge difference in loot between various guns... And Arkadia guns always give me the best % return so far of anything.
D. ARKADIA: Treasure hunting was good to me last year, I know it's been a while already since I been there doing that, but, the only SOOTO's I've had in about two years came from ARK, and were vases.
The keys, I did try last winter. I am happy with how it works... But I had just ran through all the mobs to get to the end and fight the boss... Apparently... All those little mobs on the way, loot from the goes into one of the treasure chests. The other treasure chest just has the boss item and what not... So as it turns out I didn't end up having much of a haul on my attempts. Now, I guess they changed things so you can't really just bypass the mobs on the way... At least is what I heard, and I am not uber enough to bother doing another key... Well I just don't have good enough gear for hunting. I am a miner, crafter... Hunting is a joke... Anyone want a good laugh, look me up on entropialife... Hunting is the biggest damn joke I ever did see.
E. HELL: I am impressed with my hit rates in hell. They are reminiscent of the hit rates I had on the asteroid before Foma ended up with it... i.e. I can hit at least once in 10 to 20 drops, instead of 50/50 chance of hitting one claim with 200 drops on FOMA :P Seriously, that is literally how bad FOMA is for me. Beginning to think the only way to hof there would be to have someone at MA tell you where to bomb.
One thing I have noticed... If you can't hit a claim fairly close to the TP, you probably won't in the rest of the dome, at least for many drops. If you are doing badly, just drop a few bombs around each TP and see what happens. You have nothing to lose if you are losing already!
MISC:
They are practically giving Marber Bravos away now... +90 peds mu! Seriously! At least thats the most recent one I seen... I heard of them selling even cheaper. Used to be +200 for one. It makes me wonder what other opportunities are out there.
---
I am not sure if there is a way out of the Prison on RT now or not... The TP was there, then it wasn't, and I don't honestly know if it is back yet... But before you go to prison on RT.. Just make sure you have some Mind Essence and a TP chip so that you can TP out even if someone hid the TP!
---
I know officially there are no personal loot pools... But I don't see how. It is obvious something is personal with us and MA... My loots seemingly are "capped". In 6 years time... Of running big amps, small amps, no amps, full condition crafting, quantity crafting... Hunting big mobs, little mobs... I have ONLY broken through the 1,000 ped level ONCE. I have only gone past 500 peds, three or four times. What is keeping me capped? I have plenty of skill... I've deposited plenty... The fact I have an invisible glass ceiling above my loot must in and of itself indicate my loots are tied to my avatar. Whether they want to call it a personal loot pool or not, it has the same effect.
---
I dunno, I thought I had more stuff to report, but too many things on my mind to sort out. I have one more post to do for today, and then after couple days I will get back to quality posts on specific issues and advice. I know a few recent posts have been quite general and nothing really special... It is time we get back to business and help you all prosper a bit more easily. Which,, interestingly enough has a lot to do with my next post!
There are a few issues I want to touch on.
A. Yes, the Android app is working from what I am told. I hear people might be having issues with it but it is working. As of now, you do not need to have your blueprints in books to be able to use them at the crafting terminal. This may change, who knows. And from what I see, it doesn't seem to matter what planet my prints are on, I seem perfectly able to use them, which makes sense. An app like this needs global access to all your items if it is to work. But who knows where things will end up after a while with the way MA tinkers with stuff.
B. Mining is inexplicably volatile and high risk. EVEN ON CALYPSO, you can go 50 bombs without a claim. This is ridiculous. And the software doesn't exactly do anything to balance it out either. If I didn't know any better I would say MA fubared the mining grid and won't come forward and admit to it. On the other hand, I visited FOMA. Please, don't be foolish enough to go there. Do so at your own risk. I paid 150 peds for a V oil before I realized why I vowed never to go back to FOMA, but I decided it couldn't have stayed that bad forever... Ummm yeah right. FOMA is definitely having issues. If you do go, you are going to want at least 10,000 drops for it to average out. I have done 1,000 drop amped runs without so much as a global, so it is forseable that 10K drops MIGHT give you a shot at something. But if you ask me, it's not worth the stress. There are a few things I can tell you... 1. You cannot buy a hof. 2. You cannot buy a global. They seem to happen on their own accord. So don't plan on being able to hit anything just because you are running big amps.
C. ROCKTROPIA: Loot is infinitely better balanced for me on RT. That said, it may not be for you or the next guy. Instead of 25% returns like is normal for me on Caly no matter what I do these days, RT actually keeps me around the 80% and up range on a run, doesn't matter if I craft, mine, or hunt. So I want to applaud the RT team for keeping a fair and balanced planet.
Mining advice: The F103 seems to be golden in Hell, and it is definitely doing better than the 105 on the surface for me. In general the ores on RT are shallower than elsewhere... Not saying you won't hit well with a deep finder of course... But I've tried most finders on RT, and the F103 is the one I keep going back to when I am there. If you are not doing well on RT, try either the Demonic or the F103, I think you will notice a big difference. And I still have not hit a SOOTO on RT.
Crafting: The RT armor prints, and tool prints available at the technician are quite cheap per click to craft, and I notice I gain more skill on RT than elsewhere. If you want to cheaply skill, clicking these prints on RT might be the answer. It certainly seems to be for me, and even on full condition crafting I can usually break even or profit even on a short run.
If there is ANY resources you need, and you are on RT... Please do us a favor and place orders for it... I mean, when we don't see anything listed on the AH, and we don't see orders, we don't tend to know someone needs it unless we advertise in Lagoon and someone speaks up. If we know something is in demand we are less likely to TT it or "give" it to a trader for peanuts.
Hunting: I can definitely say that my loot is best with ARK weaponry... Who knows why, but I see a huge difference in loot between various guns... And Arkadia guns always give me the best % return so far of anything.
D. ARKADIA: Treasure hunting was good to me last year, I know it's been a while already since I been there doing that, but, the only SOOTO's I've had in about two years came from ARK, and were vases.
The keys, I did try last winter. I am happy with how it works... But I had just ran through all the mobs to get to the end and fight the boss... Apparently... All those little mobs on the way, loot from the goes into one of the treasure chests. The other treasure chest just has the boss item and what not... So as it turns out I didn't end up having much of a haul on my attempts. Now, I guess they changed things so you can't really just bypass the mobs on the way... At least is what I heard, and I am not uber enough to bother doing another key... Well I just don't have good enough gear for hunting. I am a miner, crafter... Hunting is a joke... Anyone want a good laugh, look me up on entropialife... Hunting is the biggest damn joke I ever did see.
E. HELL: I am impressed with my hit rates in hell. They are reminiscent of the hit rates I had on the asteroid before Foma ended up with it... i.e. I can hit at least once in 10 to 20 drops, instead of 50/50 chance of hitting one claim with 200 drops on FOMA :P Seriously, that is literally how bad FOMA is for me. Beginning to think the only way to hof there would be to have someone at MA tell you where to bomb.
One thing I have noticed... If you can't hit a claim fairly close to the TP, you probably won't in the rest of the dome, at least for many drops. If you are doing badly, just drop a few bombs around each TP and see what happens. You have nothing to lose if you are losing already!
MISC:
They are practically giving Marber Bravos away now... +90 peds mu! Seriously! At least thats the most recent one I seen... I heard of them selling even cheaper. Used to be +200 for one. It makes me wonder what other opportunities are out there.
---
I am not sure if there is a way out of the Prison on RT now or not... The TP was there, then it wasn't, and I don't honestly know if it is back yet... But before you go to prison on RT.. Just make sure you have some Mind Essence and a TP chip so that you can TP out even if someone hid the TP!
---
I know officially there are no personal loot pools... But I don't see how. It is obvious something is personal with us and MA... My loots seemingly are "capped". In 6 years time... Of running big amps, small amps, no amps, full condition crafting, quantity crafting... Hunting big mobs, little mobs... I have ONLY broken through the 1,000 ped level ONCE. I have only gone past 500 peds, three or four times. What is keeping me capped? I have plenty of skill... I've deposited plenty... The fact I have an invisible glass ceiling above my loot must in and of itself indicate my loots are tied to my avatar. Whether they want to call it a personal loot pool or not, it has the same effect.
---
I dunno, I thought I had more stuff to report, but too many things on my mind to sort out. I have one more post to do for today, and then after couple days I will get back to quality posts on specific issues and advice. I know a few recent posts have been quite general and nothing really special... It is time we get back to business and help you all prosper a bit more easily. Which,, interestingly enough has a lot to do with my next post!
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